Box 3 Calculatorv4.6.1
Archive · May 2026 analysis

Four scenarios for Box 3

What can the Senate do, and how likely is each scenario? Our assessment after the May 19, 2026 expert hearing.

Analysis: May 19, 2026 · Archive notice updated September 18, 2026
Low10%

Pass unchanged

The Senate passes the current text of bill 36748 without a novelle. Entry into force as planned on January 1, 2028.

Triggers

  • Coalition of SP, Volt and GroenLinks-PvdA wins over undecided senators
  • The cabinet makes no substantive novelle commitment
  • Time pressure from Belastingdienst and chain partners outweighs substantive criticism

Timing

Vote in June/July 2026

Impact

Belastingdienst and chain partners hit the one-year-and-nine-months lead time for 2028 — barely. Announced Vastgoed Belang litigation proceeds; legal risk remains.

Medium35%

Pass with novelle

The bill is adopted, followed by a novelle that repairs the main points of criticism: loss offset, real-estate deemed return, life events. Entry into force possibly delayed to 2029.

Triggers

  • State Secretary Eerenberg files a concrete adjustment letter in summer 2026
  • Novelle is filed around Prinsjesdag 2026
  • Senators accept parallel treatment as a compromise

Timing

Adoption autumn 2026, novelle Q1 2027, entry into force January 1, 2028 or 2029

Impact

Two-track model with uncertainty about the final shape into 2027. Banks and insurers build against a moving target.

High45%

Delay to 2029

The Senate does not vote until the novelle is fully on the table. Entry into force shifts to January 1, 2029, possibly with a switch to a capital-gains tax instead of an accrual tax.

Triggers

  • A majority of senators expresses preference for a capital-gains tax
  • Belastingdienst and chain partners signal that 2028 is no longer feasible
  • The coalition target (full capital-gains tax by Prinsjesdag 2029) is brought forward

Timing

Definitive decision Q4 2026 / Q1 2027

Impact

The bridging law (36204) remains the active system through end-2028. Taxpayers continue using tegenbewijs via current forms. The investment climate gets a year of breathing room.

Low10%

Withdraw and redesign

The bill is withdrawn (as Heithuis advised), and the cabinet comes back with a new design that doubles as a tegenbewijs regime. Politically the most radical scenario.

Triggers

  • Senate forces withdrawal by blocking written rounds
  • Cabinet voluntarily restarts to limit legal risk
  • Tweede Kamer majority shifts explicitly toward a capital-gains tax

Timing

Withdrawal Q3 2026, new bill 2027

Impact

Longest path, cleanest end-state. Bridging law dominates through at least 2029. Risk of fresh legal skirmishes around the tegenbewijs regime.

Current outlook — checked September 18, 2026

  1. September 21 / 24; October 1Tax Plan technical briefing, procedural meeting and written input scheduled; no final passage yet.
  2. Next budget decision pointOfficial box 3 letter gives no fixed spring 2027 deadline; await a concrete proposal and funding.
  3. January 1, 2028Fiscal baseline, conditional on timely legislation and execution.
  4. 2030 (conditional)Possible full capital-gains taxation under an ambitious timetable; no route selected.
Back to the May 19 report